01 · The Challenge
A federal rule, applied fifty different ways.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed in July 2025, created Medicaid work requirements for certain adults ages 19–64 enrolled in expansion coverage, and most states must implement them by January 1, 2027. Roughly 20 million people could be subject to the new reporting rules, and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that 5.2–7.5 million enrollees could lose coverage.
People with serious or complex medical conditions can be exempt as “medically frail” — but states have discretion over how they define and apply that exemption, and a diagnosis alone may not qualify someone. For patients with cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, and kidney disease, the state they live in could shape whether they keep their coverage.